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Florida cools on Jeb Bush
11/13/2015   By Marc Caputo and Ben Schreckinger | POLITICO
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Republican presidential candidate former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks during the Sunshine Summit conference in Orlando. | Getty
 

ORLANDO, FLA. — The Republican Party of Florida belongs to Jeb Bush no more.

The political organization that Bush helped build into a dominant force has begun to move past him, as the party’s most influential operatives and activists made clear on Friday by denying their former governor the broad, enthusiastic support he would have once enjoyed at this presidential cattle-call.

“Jeb has been body-snatched,” said Sid Dinerstein, former chairman of the Palm Beach County Republican Party and an active supporter of Bush’s gubernatorial bids.

“You remember the movie ‘Invasion of the Body Snatchers?’” Dinerstein asked on the sidelines of the Sunshine State Summit. “One of them went in and snatched Jeb Bush and made this guy a supporter of Common Core and amnesty.”

The tepid support on display here is right in line with Florida polls, some of which show Bush clinging to fourth place with Texan Ted Cruz and running well behind his one-time protégé Marco Rubio. According to one recent survey, taking Bush out of the crowded race would put Rubio in a tie with Donald Trump among Florida voters – a finding that Republicans like Dinerstein say should encourage Bush to consider quitting the race.

That’s a dramatic shift since the last time Republican presidential contenders gathered here, for Gov. Rick Scott’s Economic Growth Summit in June. Then, Bush led in national polling and Rubio was viewed as an upstart who would have to break the senior Floridian’s hold on the state party to fulfill his national ambitions.

Now Bush is stuck playing the underdog as establishment Republicans look increasingly to Rubio as the candidate to rescue them from Trump and Ben Carson, outsiders who were mere afterthoughts when the race began. Even some members of Florida’s old guard said Bush was simply too far out of step with the priorities of today’s party.

“When was the last time that Gov. Bush was on the ballot?” asked state Sen. Alan Hays. “2002. That’s 13 years ago. That’s not Common Core math. That’s American math.”

One of Bush’s longtime supporters, Indian River Tax Collector and former state party Chair Carole Jean Jordan, said she still thinks Bush has the time, the biography and the message to get ahead. “He’s a good man and was great for our state,” she said.
But so many Florida Republican voters don’t know that. Many of the attendees at the two-day summit were in grade school when Bush was governor. 

Rubio, the newer and sleeker candidate, was mobbed by young supporters all day and drew standing ovations at both the beginning and the end of his speech. One of his biggest applause lines was his declaration that “We don’t need Common Core.” Bush’s support for the federal educational standards, a favorite bugaboo of Republican activists this year, sets him apart from most of his primary opponents.

Taking the stage next, Rep. Dave Jolly asked, “How does somebody follow a rock star like Marco Rubio?”

Rubio supporters pressed up to the barricade at the front of the room following the senator’s remarks and waited their turn for photos and autographs.

“I swear, if you get a selfie before me I’m going to be so angry,” one young woman remarked to a friend as both pushed their way to the front of the room.

Christina Calderaio, 26, was among those mobbing Rubio. She said that after watching the last two debates, she is leaning toward the Florida senator. And notably, Bush is not on her list of alternatives. “I think Jeb Bush is a good person,” she said. “I don’t think his words would slay Hillary [Clinton]. Marco Rubio would take it to Hillary.”

Rubio’s Florida co-chair, Rep. Tom Rooney, introduced the senator with a story about breaking the pecking order of Florida Republicans to support him in 2010. 

Bush’s successor, Charlie Crist, had endorsed Rooney in his 2008 congressional bid, and when Rubio challenged the sitting governor in the Senate primary, Rooney said he had planned to return the favor and endorse Crist. Instead, Rooney said that after hearing Rubio deliver a speech at a Republican event, he turned to his wife and told her, “There is no way in hell I could endorse Charlie Crist.”

Bush’s speech to these Republican activists focused heavily on his biography and accomplishments as governor. He touted a listening tour of Florida schools he embarked upon during his 1998 gubernatorial campaign, saying, “Listening and learning is the way that you lead.” He also nodded to his own lack of charisma. “If you want a talker, maybe I’m not the guy,” he said, describing himself instead as a “doer.”

The contrast between Bush’s and Rubio’s loyalists was stark, one long-time Washington Republican strategist noted. Rubio’s speech had a notably younger crowd near the stage, including a few pregnant women. Bush’s speech, the unaffiliated consultant said, “had 13 old people in walkers and scooters. That tells you something.”

Chris Yerkes, a 21-year-old Republican, summed up Bush’s fortunes this way: “He had his time and his time has come to an end.”

For Brian Crowley, a public-relations consultant and former Palm Beach Post political editor who now publishes the Crowley Political Report, the reception Bush received was notable because it was warm, but not warm enough. The thrill was gone.

“In 2007 or 2008, Jeb could have walked in here and people would have fallen head over heels,” Crowley said. “Now it’s like he’s an old lover from your past. You still have fond memories. But you don’t want to get back together again.”

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